Sustained Neutralization of the Warming Response to Emissions through Multiple Mitigation Strategies

Emissions abatement and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are critical to achieving a global net-zero scenario under which temperatures are stabilized. In the near term, organizations pursuing net-zero targets may compensate for remaining emissions by combining short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) abatement with CDR. Because these mitigation strategies have climate impacts across distinct timescales, they provide complementary tools to address both near-term and long-term warming. However, the distinct timescales mean that, to ensure emissions remain compensated, accounting approaches must evaluate each strategy’s impact across time. We propose an approach based on sustained warming neutralization. By translating emission and mitigation impacts into a single metric - the continuous global mean surface temperature response - it ensures the warming response to an emission is neutralized in the near- and long-term. We then introduce a method to design mitigation portfolios using the approach. Ultimately, the approach structurally aligns emission compensation claims with global temperature stabilization goals.